how to gather and analyze data to determine most efficacious timing of change(journal article)

Molina, May 16, 2020 (sent for review May 14, 2020; reviewed by Manish Shrivastava and Tong Zhu).

The mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic.

Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic.

This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections.

Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public.

Our work also highlights the necessity that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.

Abstract Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering.

However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain.

Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease.

By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic.

Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters.

This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 75,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9.

We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 virus aerosol public health pandemic The novel coronavirus outbreak, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020, has infected over 4 million people and caused nearly 300,000 fatalities over 188 countries ( 1 ).

Intensive effort is ongoing worldwide to establish effective treatments and develop a vaccine for the disease.

The novel coronavirus, named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), belongs to the family of the pathogen that is responsible for respiratory illness linked to the 20022003 outbreak (SARS-CoV-1) ( 2 ).

The enveloped virus contains a positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome and a nucleocapsid of helical symmetry of 120 nm.

There exist several plausible pathways for viruses to be transmitted from person to person.

Human atomization of virus-bearing particles occurs from coughingsneezing and even from normal breathingtalking by an infected person ( 3 6 ).

These mechanisms of viral shedding produce large droplets and small aerosols ( 3 ), which are conventionally delineated at a size of 5 m to characterize their distinct dispersion efficiencies and residence times in air as well as the deposition patterns along the human respiratory tract ( 3, 7 ).

Virus transmission occurs via direct (deposited on persons) or indirect (deposited on objects) contact and airborne (droplets and aerosols) routes ( 3 ).

How To Gather And Analyze Data To Determine Most Efficacious Timing Of Change(Journal Article)